July 20 Betting Angles

Ok, so we all had a couple of days off from baseball, but it’s time to get back to the grind. As I write this, we know that the Orioles have started their tear down, Machado is officially a Dodger and the Padres just shipped Brad Hand and Adam Cimber to the Indians for Francisco Meija.

Of course there will be plenty more player movement now that two of the front-runners have made their first splash. How will the Diamondbacks and Brewers in the National League counter? When are the Yankees going to acquire their starting pitching? It’s never too early, but today it’s time to get back to breaking down the matchups for July 20…

(903) Atlanta Braves (+160) vs (904) Washington Nationals

Anibal Sanchez 4-2, 2.60 ERA (3-1, 3.18 ERA on the road) vs Stephen Strasburg 6-6, 3.46 ERA (2-4, 4.50 ERA at home)

Braves vs RHP (#8, .252 BA / #19, .721 OPS); 37-29 vs RHP; 27-22 on the road

Nationals vs RHP (#20 .244 BA / #15, .726 OPS); 38-30 vs RHP; 22-24 at home

Anibal Sanchez ranks as the #20 most profitable (+428) starter in 2018. Stephen Strasburg ranks as the #32 least profitable (-372) starter in 2018.

Moondog’s analysis: The Braves look like a top play to me. Keep in mind, Strasburg is also making his first start after missing several weeks on the DL.

 

(915) Boston Red Sox vs (916) Detroit Tigers (+185)

David Price 10-6, 4.42 ERA (5-4, 4.96 ERA on the road) vs Matthew Boyd 4-8, 4.76 ERA (3-2, 3.57 ERA at home)

Red Sox vs LHP (#9, .259 BA / #10, .741 OPS); 14-11 vs LHP; 34-17 on the road

Tigers vs LHP (#4, .271 BA / #8, .756 OPS); 14-11 vs LHP; 25-23 at home

David Price ranks as the #22 most profitable (+413) starter in 2018.

Moondog’s analysis: The Tigers have several things going for them. I could see this as an over 9 play, since the Sox offense is that good. I’ll take 1/2 on the Tigers ML, and 1/2 on the over 9. I just don’t trust David Price.

 

(901) St. Louis Cardinals vs (902) Chicago Cubs (-140)

Jack Flaherty 3-4, 3.24 ERA (1-2, 3.41 ERA on the road) vs Jon Lester 12-2, 2.58 ERA (5-1, 1.98 ERA at home)

Cardinals vs LHP (#26, .229 BA / #19, .700 OPS); 11-13 vs LHP; 24-22 on the road

Cubs vs RHP (#2, .267 BA / #2, .778 OPS); 38-32 vs RHP; 28-15 at home

Jack Flaherty ranks as the #21 least profitable (-457) starter in 2018. Jon Lester ranks as the #2 most profitable (+874) starter in 2018.

Moondog’s analysis: The Cubs are the right side, even at this number. You can’t get the run line yet, but I think it’s a strong play tomorrow morning.

 

(905) San Diego Padres vs (906) Philadelphia Phillies (-160)

Clayton Richard 7-8, 4.43 ERA (5-5, 5.04 ERA on the road) vs Jake Arrieta 7-6, 3.23 ERA (3-2, 2.53 ERA at home)

Padres vs RHP (#26, .232 BA / #30, .653 OPS); 30-38 vs RHP; 20-28 on the road

Phillies vs LHP (#27, .229 BA / #26, .674 OPS); 12-10 vs LHP; 30-16 at home

Moondog’s analysis: The Padres are going to be short some major league talent in the bullpen after trading Hand and Cimber, and if it gets that far you gotta like the Phillies chances.

 

(907) Pittsburgh Pirates vs (908) Cincinnati Reds

Jameson Taillon 6-7, 3.91 ERA (3-3, 3.93 ERA on the road) vs Tyler Mahle 7-7, 4.02 ERA (2-3, 3.91 ERA at home)

Pirates vs RHP (#11, .251 BA / #17, .721 OPS); 37-34 vs RHP; 19-25 on the road

Reds vs RHP (#3, .258 BA / #9, .740 OPS); 30-41 vs RHP; 21-26 at home

Tyler Mahle ranks as the #13 most profitable (+507) starter in 2018.

Moondog’s analysis: This game doesn’t really leap out to me. I’ll pass for now.

 

(909) Los Angeles Dodgers (-145) vs (910) Milwaukee Brewers

Rich Hill 2-4 4.55 ERA (0-1 4.50 ERA on the road) vs Wade Miley 1-1 2.38 ERA (0-0 0.00 ERA at home)

Dodgers vs LHP (#23, .232 BA / #16, .716 OPS); 19-15 vs LHP; 25-19 on the road

Brewers vs LHP (#28, .224 BA / #24, .680 OPS); 10-9 vs LHP; 30-18 at home

Rich Hill ranks as the #33 least profitable (-349) starter in 2018.

Moondog’s analysis: The Dodgers will be debuting their new SS/3B Manny Machado. He will bring added life and length to their lineup. I’ll bite.

(911) Colorado Rockies (+130) vs (912) Arizona Diamondbacks

German Marquez 8-8, 4.81 ERA (5-3, 2.62 ERA on the road) vs Robbie Ray 3-2 5.03 ERA (1-1 7.97 ERA at home)

Rockies vs LHP (#3, .271 BA / #4, .791 OPS); 21-19 vs LHP; 28-22 on the road

Diamondbacks vs RHP (#30, .221 BA / #26, .677 OPS); 32-30 vs RHP; 26-23 at home

Moondog’s analysis: The Rockies mash lefties, and Robbie Ray has been brutal at home.

(913) Baltimore Orioles vs (914) Toronto Blue Jays (-140)

Dylan Bundy 6-9, 4.35 ERA (3-4, 3.97 ERA on the road) vs Sam Gaviglio 2-3, 4.58 ERA (1-0, 1.97 ERA at home)

Orioles vs RHP (#29, .225 BA / #27, .671 OPS); 15-48 vs RHP; 12-36 on the road

Blue Jays vs RHP (#22, .240 BA / #11, .738 OPS); 32-28 vs RHP; 24-25 at home

Dylan Bundy ranks as the #20 least profitable (-459) starter in 2018.

 

Moondog’s analysis: The Orioles trade their best player (Manny Machado) off of a team that already ranked near the very bottom in offense. I’ll roll with the Jays at home.

 

(917) Cleveland Indians (-180) vs (918) Texas Rangers

Trevor Bauer 8-6, 2.24 ERA (4-5, 2.26 ERA on the road) vs Martin Perez 2-4, 7.67 ERA (1-1, 10.00 ERA at home)

Indians vs LHP (#6, .267 BA / #6, .761 OPS); 16-10 vs LHP; 21-24 on the road

Rangers vs RHP (#28, .231 BA / #24, .704 OPS); 28-38 vs RHP; 19-28 at home

Moondog’s analysis: The Indians run line is my play, but right now it’s not available. -180 is steep, but the Tribe is the right side.

 

(919) Minnesota Twins (-125) vs (920) Kansas City Royals

Kyle Gibson 4-6, 3.42 ERA (2-2, 2.84 ERA on the road) vs Danny Duffy 5-8, 4.59 ERA (0-4, 6.75 ERA at home)

Twins vs LHP (#12, .250 BA / #20, .699 OPS); 11-15 vs LHP; 15-28 on the road

Royals vs RHP (#23, .239 BA / #29, .666 OPS); 14-50 vs RHP; 11-35 at home

Moondog’s analysis: I’m not going to lie. I like Twinkies, especially at a price like this. There’s a lot to like about the visitors, and to dislike about the Royale with Cheese.

(921) Houston Astros (-130) vs (922) Los Angeles Angels

Dallas Keuchel 7-8, 3.75 ERA (4-4, 3.43 ERA on the road) vs Tyler Skaggs 7-5, 2.57 ERA (2-3, 3.29 ERA at home)

Astros vs LHP (#1, .274 BA / #3, .795 OPS); 21-15 vs LHP; 32-14 on the road

Angels vs LHP (#29, .224 BA / #25, .676 OPS); 9-18 vs LHP; 24-23 at home

Moondog’s analysis: I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again… The Angels can’t hit lefties. You are going to give me the best offense (Astros) at this low a price? Please, give me more!

 

(923) Chicago White Sox vs (924) Seattle Mariners (-205)

James Shields 4-10, 4.43 ERA (1-5, 6.14 ERA on the road) vs Wade LeBlanc 5-1, 3.63 ERA (5-0, 2.88 ERA at home)

White Sox vs LHP (#18, .241 BA / #21, .695 OPS); 7-14 vs LHP; 14-33 on the road

Mariners vs RHP (#6, .256 BA / #14, .730 OPS); 42-24 vs RHP; 31-17 at home

James Shields ranks as the #15 least profitable (-500) starter in 2018. Wade LeBlanc ranks as the #15 most profitable (+487) starter in 2018.

Moondog’s analysis: This is a mismatch, but I hate laying -200’s. I’ll probably wait for the run line and take that, but if you want a leg for your parlay take the Mariners.

 

(925) New York Mets vs (926) New York Yankees

Noah Syndergaard 5-1, 2.97 ERA (1-0, 2.84 ERA on the road) vs Domingo German 2-5, 5.49 ERA (2-2, 4.79 ERA at home)

Mets vs RHP (#27, .232 BA) / #23, .705 OPS); 30-40 vs RHP; 20-23 on the road

Yankees vs RHP (#16, .250 BA / #3, .778 OPS); 39-27 vs RHP; 33-13 at home

Moondog’s analysis: Domingo German scares me… No action for me.

 

(927) Miami Marlins (+154) vs (928) Tampa Bay Rays 

Dan Straily 3-4, 4.29 ERA (1-3, 3.67 ERA on the road) vs Nathan Eovaldi 3-4, 4.59 ERA (1-0, 2.45 ERA at home)

Marlins vs RHP (#15, .250 BA / #25, .692 OPS); 31-41 vs RHP; 18-29 on the road

Rays vs RHP (#5, .256 BA / #20, .719 OPS); 31-34 vs RHP; 26-17 at home

Dan Straily ranks as the #39 most profitable (+326) starter in 2018

Moondog’s analysis: I lean slightly on the Marlins, but not really enough for me to play them. Eovaldi got hammered his last time out for the Rays.

 

(929) San Francisco Giants vs (930) Oakland Athletics

Dereck Rodriguez 4-1, 2.89 ERA (1-1, 3.79 ERA on the road) vs Edwin Jackson 1-1, 2.59 ERA (1-0, 2.70 ERA at home)

Giants vs RHP (#4, .257 BA / #16, .722 OPS); 32-27 vs RHP; 19-29 on the road

Athletics vs RHP (#10, .251 BA / #7, .752 OPS); 40-25 vs RHP; 24-21 at home

Dereck Rodriguez ranks as the #29 most profitable (+392) starter in 2018. Edwin Jackson ranks as the #40 most profitable (+319) starter in 2018

Moondog’s analysis: I don’t have a side, but lean towards taking the over 9. Both of these teams are swinging the lumber against RHP.

 

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