Breaking down the July 21 MLB card

Breaking down the July 21 MLB card

(953) Atlanta Braves (+125) vs (954) Washington Nationals

Total: 8.5

Sean Newcomb 8-5 3.51ERA (5-3 3.79ERA on the road) vs Gio Gonzalez 6-6 3.72ERA (3-2 3.09ERA at home)

Braves vs LHP: (#2, .274BA / #2, .806OPS); 15-13 vs LHP; 28-22 on the road

Nationals vs LHP: (#16, .245BA / #15, .718OPS); 10-18 vs LHP; 22-25 at home

Moondog’s Analysis: Newcomb kept the Nationals in check the last time he faced them. The Nats roster is a combined 9 for 41 against him in 2018. The Braves are a combined 5 for 26 against Gonzalez in 2018. Game 1 of this series went to the Braves 8-5. The Braves are the better team, and they get plus money. I’ll take the road dogs.

 

(955) San Diego Padres vs (956) Philadelphia Phillies

Total: 8.5

Luis Perdomo 1-4 7.55ERA (1-0 2.13ERA on the road) vs Vince Velasquez 5-8 4.39ERA (3-5 6.16ERA at home)

Padres vs RHP: (#26, .232BA / #30, .653OPS); 30-39 vs RHP; 20-29 on the road

Phillies vs RHP: (#24, .238BA / #19, .721OPS); 41-32 vs RHP; 31-16 at home

Moondog’s Analysis: Velasquez is the #25 least profitable (-431) starter in 2018 over his 18 starts. The Phillies brought out the lumber on Friday night, in an 11-5 victory. Velasquez scares the hell out of me at the Bank. Give me the over 8.5.

 

(957) Los Angeles Dodgers (-175) vs (958) Milwaukee Brewers

Total: 8

Clayton Kershaw 3-4 2.74ERA (1-1 2.25ERA on the road) vs Chase Anderson 6-7 3.78ERA (3-3 4.83ERA at home)

Dodgers vs RHP: (#18, .250BA / #4, .773OPS); 34-28 vs RHP; 26-19 on the road

Brewers vs LHP: (#28, .224BA / #24, .680OPS); 10-10 vs LHP; 30-19 at home

Moondog’s Analysis: Kershaw is the #30 least profitable (-398) starter in 2018 over his 13 starts. The Dodgers seem to be hitting their stride, meanwhile the Brewers appear hung over (pun intended). I would normally take a flyer on the Dodgers -1.5, however it’s -125 which is not giving me enough value. Going over the total appears to be play once again.

 

(959) Pittsburgh Pirates vs (960) Cincinnati Reds

Total: 9.5

Nick Kingham 4-4 4.26ERA (1-3 6.41ERA on the road) vs Anthony DeSclafani 4-2 5.32ERA (2-1 5.46ERA at home)

Pirates vs RHP: (#12, .251BA / #18, .721OPS); 38-34 vs RHP; 20-25 on the road

Reds vs RHP: (#3, .258 BA / #9, .740OPS); 30-42 vs RHP; 21-27 at home

Moondog’s Analysis: The Pirates are a combined 3 for 20 against DeSclafani in 2018. Both starters are nothing special, and the Pirates won game 1 by a 12-1 score. Over 9.5 seems the way to go here.

 

(961) St Louis Cardinals vs (962) Chicago Cubs (Game 2)

Total: N/A

John Gant 3-3 3.49ERA (0-1 3.60ERA on the road) vs Mike Montgomery 3-3 3.91ERA (2-1 5.57ERA at home)

Cardinals vs LHP: (#26, .229BA / #20, .698OPS)12-13 vs LHP; 25-23 on the road

Cubs vs RHP: (#2, .268BA / #2, .780OPS); 39-33 vs RHP; 29-16 at home

Moondog’s Analysis: Gant is the #31 least profitable (-391) starter in 2018 over his 6 starts. The Cardinals are a combined 0 for 12 against Montgomery in 2018. Check the wind in the morning, but the over is the right side.

 

(963) Colorado Rockies (+116) vs (964) Arizona Diamondbacks

Total: 8

Kyle Freeland 8-6 3.11ERA (3-4 3.38ERA on the road) vs Zack Godley 11-6 4.61ERA (5-2 3.72ERA)

Rockies vs RHP: (#14, .250BA / #10, .738OPS); 30-26 vs RHP; 29-22 on the road

Diamondbacks vs LHP: (#13, .249BA / #7, .756OPS); 21-14 vs LHP; 26-24 at home

Moondog’s Analysis: Freeland is the #30 most profitable (+397) starter in 2018 over his 19 starts. The Diamondbacks are a combined 10 for 42 against Freeland in 2018. The Rockies are a combined 5 for 21 against Godley in 2018. Game 1 went to the Rockies by a score of 11-10. It seems like a trend. Give me the over 8 in the desert.

 

(983) St Louis Cardinals vs (984) Chicago Cubs (Game 1)

Total: N/A

Luke Weaver 5-8 4.72ERA (5-4 4.27ERA on the road) vs Tyler Chatwood 3-5 5.04ERA (2-3 6.08ERA at home)

Cardinals vs RHP: (#11, .251BA / #16, .722OPS); 37-34 vs RHP; 25-23 on the road

Cubs vs RHP: (#2, .268BA / #2, .780OPS); 39-33 vs RHP; 29-16 at home

Moondog’s Analysis: The Cubs are a combined 15 for 37 against Weaver in 2018. The Cardinals are a combined 4 for 30 against Chatwood in 2018. Check the wind, but this should be an over game. The Cardinals won 18-5 on Friday.

 

(965) Baltimore Orioles vs (966) Toronto Blue Jays

Total: 9

Alex Cobb 2-12 6.41ERA (2-7 6.75ERA on the road) vs Marcus Stroman 2-7 5.86ERA (1-3 7.33ERA at home)

Orioles vs RHP: (#29, .225BA / #27, .671OPS); 15-49 vs RHP; 12-37 on the road

Blue Jays vs RHP: (#22, .240BA / #11, .738OPS); 33-28 vs RHP; 25-25 at home

Moondog’s Analysis: Cobb is the #2 least profitable (-944) starter in 2018 over his 17 starts. The Blue Jays are a combined 11 for 22 against Cobb in 2018. Alex Cobb is simply terrible, but I can’t trust this season’s version of Marcus Stroman either. I’ll expect more fireworks north of the border. Over 9.

 

(967) Boston Red Sox vs (968) Detroit Tigers

Total: 9.5

Brian Johnson 1-2 4.20ERA (1-1 2.79ERA on the road) vs Mike Fiers 6-6 3.70ERA (4-2 3.00ERA at home)

Red Sox vs RHP: (#1, .276BA / #1, .821OPS); 54-19 vs RHP; 35-17 on the road

Tigers vs LHP: (#4, .271BA / #8, .756OPS); 14-12 vs LHP; 25-24 at home

Moondog’s Analysis: Fiers ranks as the most profitable (+972) starter in 2018 over his 18 starts. The Tigers are a combined 3 for 15 against Johnson in 2018. Two of the top offenses battle after the Sox took game 1 by a score of 1-0. The Tigers amazingly enough really do well against lefties. I’ll take the over 9.5.

 

(969) Minnesota Twins vs (970) Kansas City Royals

Total: 9.5

Lance Lynn 7-7 5.22ERA (2-5 7.83ERA on the road) vs Jakob Junis 5-10 5.13ERA (3-7 5.58ERA at home)

Twins vs RHP: (#21, .242BA / #13, .731OPS); 33-35 vs RHP; 15-29 on the road

Royals vs RHP: (#23, .239BA / #29, .666OPS); 15-50 vs RHP; 12-35 at home

Moondog’s Analysis: The Royals are a combined 11 for 44 against Lynn in 2018. The Twins are a combined 6 for 24 against Junis in 2018. Game 1 of this series went 6-5 to the Royals. I’ll take the over 9.5

 

(971) Houston Astros (-170) vs (972) Los Angeles Angels

Total: 8.5

Justin Verlander 9-5 2.29ERA (7-2 1.99ERA on the road) vs Nick Tropeano 3-4 4.83ERA (0-2 6.12ERA at home)

Astros vs RHP: (#7, .255BA / #6, .756OPS); 43-20 vs RHP; 33-14 on the road

Angels vs RHP: (#13, .251BA / #8, .748OPS); 40-30 vs RHP; 24-24 at home

Moondog’s Analysis: The Angels are a combined 9 for 57 against Verlander in 2018. The Astros are a combined 4 for 19 against Tropeano in 2018. The Astros will be in my parlay.

 

(973) Cleveland Indians (-200) vs (974) Texas Rangers

Total: 10

Carlos Carrasco 11-5 4.12ERA (4-3 3.33ERA on the road) vs Bartolo Colon 5-7 4.64ERA (2-2 5.00ERA at home)

Indians vs RHP: (#9, .251BA / #5, .765OPS); 36-33 vs RHP; 22-24 on the road

Rangers vs RHP: (#28, .231BA / #24, .704OPS); 28-39 vs RHP; 19-29 at home

Moondog’s Analysis: The Indians bullpen nearly lost the game on Friday, but somehow managed to pull off the 9-8 victory. The real escape job occurred in the bottom of the 10th when the Rangers had the bases loaded and no outs. They somehow managed to choke and lose in the 11th. Both bullpens were emptied, and so I’ll lean on the Indians in a parlay with Carrasco.

 

(975) Chicago White Sox vs (976) Seattle Mariners (-1.5/-120)

Total: 9

Dylan Covey 3-5 5.69ERA (1-4 7.90ERA on the road) vs Felix Hernandez 8-7 5.13ERA (4-4 3.94ERA at home)

White Sox vs RHP: (#19, .245BA / #22, .708OPS); 26-48 vs RHP; 14-34 on the road

Mariners vs RHP: (#6, .256BA / #14, .730OPS); 43-24 vs RHP; 32-17 at home

Moondog’s Analysis: The White Sox are a combined 7 for 24 against Hernandez in 2018. I like the Mariners -1.5 and over 9 as a split play. Covey is abysmal on the road.

 

(977) New York Mets vs (978) New York Yankees

Total: 9.5

Steven Matz 4-7 3.38ERA (3-2 2.25ERA on the road) vs Sonny Gray 6-7 5.46ERA (2-3 8.25ERA at home)

Mets vs RHP: (#27, .232BA / #23, .705OPS); 31-40 vs RHP; 21-23 on the road

Yankees vs LHP: (#10, .259BA / #1, .836OPS); 23-6 vs LHP; 33-14 at home

Moondog’s Analysis: Gray is the #18 least profitable (-485) starter in 2018 over his 18 starts. The Yankees are a combined 5 for 21 against Matz in 2018. It’s hard to bet against the Yankees when they face a lefty, but I can’t lay -250 with Sonny Gray. I’ll expect the normal bombers to score plenty of runs though. Take the over 9.5

 

(979) Miami Marlins vs (980) Tampa Bay Rays

Total: N/A

Pablo Lopez 1-1 6.35ERA (0-0 9.00ERA on the road) vs Ryne Stanek 1-2 2.08ERA (0-0 0.56ERA at home)

Marlins vs RHP: (#16, .250BA / #25, .692OPS); 32-41 vs RHP; 19-29 on the road

Rays vs RHP: (#5, .256BA/ #21, .719OPS); 31-35 vs RHP; 26-18 at home

Moondog’s Analysis: The Marlins are a combined 2 for 8 against Stanek in 2018.

 

(981) San Francisco Giants vs (982) Oakland Athletics

Total: 8

Madison Bumgarner 3-3 2.90ERA (0-2 4.67ERA on the road) vs Trevor Cahill 1-2 3.10ERA (1-0 0.64ERA at home)

Giants vs RHP: (#4, .257BA / #17, .722OPS); 33-27 vs RHP; 20-29 on the road

Athletics vs LHP: (#21, .233BA / #18, .702OPS); 15-17 vs LHP; 24-22 at home

Moondog’s Analysis: The Athletics are a combined 3 for 21 against Bumgarner in 2018.

 

 

 

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