Breaking down the July 22 MLB card

Thoughts and betting angles by Chris Moon

(901) Pittsburgh Pirates vs (902) Cincinnati Reds
Total: 9.5
Ivan Nova 5-6 4.38ERA (3-3 5.74ERA on the road) vs Matt Harvey 5-5 4.63ERA (3-0 3.04ERA at home)
Pirates vs RHP: (#7, .254BA / #14, .732OPS); 39-34 vs RHP; 21-25 on the road
Reds vs RHP: (#3, .256BA / #12, .736OPS); 30-43 vs RHP; 21-28 at home
Moondog’s Analysis: The Pirates are 7 for 38 vs Harvey in 2018. The Reds are 12 for 49 vs Nova in 2018. Harvey is the #14 most profitable (+526) starter in 2018 over his 16 starts. This looks like an under play, with the potential of rain and Harvey’s dominance at home.

(903) Atlanta Braves (+210) vs (904) Washington Nationals
Total: 7.5
Mike Foltynewicz 7-5 2.66ERA (4-4 2.54ERA on the road) vs Max Scherzer 12-5 2.41ERA (5-2 2.55ERA at home)
Braves vs RHP: (#10, .253BA / #17, .725OPS); 38-29 vs RHP; 28-22 on the road
Nationals vs RHP: (#20, .244BA / #15, .727OPS); 38-31 vs RHP; 22-25 at home
Moondog’s Analysis: The Nationals are 11 for 68 vs Foltynewicz in 2018. The Braves are 10 for 53 vs Scherzer in 2018. Believe it or not, but these two teams are evenly matched right now. “Folty” is really good, and this price is too hard to pass up. I might also take a Braves +1.5 bet.

(905) San Diego Padres vs (906) Philadelphia Phillies GAME 1
Total: N/A
Luis Perdomo 1-4 7.55ERA (1-0 2.13ERA on the road) vs Vince Velasquez 5-8 4.39ERA (3-5 6.16ERA at home)
Padres vs RHP: (#27, .233BA / #30, .655OPS); 30-39 vs RHP; 20-29 on the road
Phillies vs RHP: (#23, .239BA / #19, .722OPS); 41-32 vs RHP; 31-16 at home
Moondog’s Analysis: Perdomo is the #31 least profitable (-347) starter in 2018 over his 7 starts. Velasquez is the #26 least profitable (-431) starter in 2018 over his 18 starts.

() San Diego Padres vs () Philadelphia Phillies GAME 2
Total: N/A
Tyson Ross 5-8 4.32ERA (2-5 4.16ERA on the road) vs Nick Pivetta 6-74.58ERA (4-4 4.02ERA at home)
Padres vs RHP: (#27, .233BA / #30, .655OPS); 30-39 vs RHP; 20-29 on the road
Phillies vs RHP: (#23, .239BA / #19, .722OPS); 41-32 vs RHP; 31-16 at home
Moondog’s Analysis:

(907) Los Angeles Dodgers vs (908) Milwaukee Brewers
Total: 8.5
Alex Wood 5-5 3.92ERA (2-3 4.10ERA on the road) vs Brent Suter 8-6 4.39ERA (5-3 4.87ERA at home)
Dodgers vs LHP: (#26, .231BA / #17, .707OPS); 20-15 vs LHP; 26-20 on the road
Brewers vs LHP: (#28, .224BA / #24, .679OPS); 11-10 vs LHP; 31-19 at home
Moondog’s Analysis: Neither team stands out vs southpaws. I’ll pass on this one.

(909) St Louis Cardinals (+125) vs (910) Chicago Cubs
Total: N/A
Miles Mikolas 10-3 2.79ERA (6-0 3.56ERA on the road) vs Jose Quintana 8-6 3.96ERA (3-2 5.50ERA at home)
Cardinals vs LHP: (#20, .236BA / #15, .725OPS); 13-13 vs LHP; 26-24 on the road
Cubs vs RHP: (#2, .267BA / #3, .777OPS); 40-34 vs RHP; 30-17 at home
Moondog’s Analysis: The Cubs are 7-29 vs Mikolas in 2018. The Cardinals are 9 for 35 vs Quintana in 2018. Mikolas is the #23 most profitable (+434) starter in 2018 over his 19 starts. I’ll roll with the helter-skelter Cardinals as a live dog at this price.

(911) Colorado Rockies vs (912) Arizona Diamondbacks
Total: 8
Antonio Senzatela 3-2 5.34ERA (1-2 7.20ERA on the road) vs Zack Greinke 10-5 3.18ERA (4-1 2.56ERA at home)
Rockies vs RHP: (#14, .251BA / #9, .742OPS); 31-26 vs RHP; 30-22 on the road
Diamondbacks vs LHP: (#12, .249BA / #8, .754OPS); 21-15 vs LHP; 26-25 at home
Moondog’s Analysis: The Diamondbacks are 3 for 11 vs Senzatela in 2018. The Rockies are 13 for 48 vs Greinke in 2018. Both teams are swinging it, and I’ll expect more runs in the desert.

(913) Baltimore Orioles vs (914) Toronto Blue Jays -1.5/-105
Total: 9
Andrew Cashner 2-9 4.56ERA (2-4 4.01ERA on the road) vs J.A. Happ 10-6 4.29ERA (6-4 5.48ERA at home)
Orioles vs LHP: (#23, .232BA / #28, .663OPS); 13-21 vs LHP; 12-38 on the road
Blue Jays vs RHP: (#22, .241BA / #10, .741OPS); 34-28 vs RHP; 26-25 at home
Moondog’s Analysis: The Blue Jays are 13 for 48 vs Cashner in 2018. The Orioles are 8 for 48 vs Happ in 2018. Cashner is the #19 least profitable (-481) starter in 2018 over his 18 starts. I’m expecting more of the same with the Orioles, which of course means less offense and Happ is showcasing himself for a potential trade.

(915) Boston Red Sox vs (916) Detroit Tigers
Total: 8
Chris Sale 10-4 2.23ERA (6-2 2.26ERA on the road) vs Blaine Hardy 3-2 3.31ERA (2-0 3.07ERA at home)
Red Sox vs LHP: (#10, .256BA / #13, .734OPS); 15-11 vs LHP; 35-18 on the road
Tigers vs LHP: (#6, .267BA / #9, .742OPS); 15-12 vs LHP; 26-24 at home
Moondog’s Analysis: The Red Sox are 8 for 24 vs Hardy in 2018. The Red Sox have scored 1 run in the last two games and face another lefty. We get Sale on the bump for half the game. Easy under.

(917) Minnesota Twins vs (918) Kansas City Royals
Total: 9.5
Jake Odorizzi 4-6 4.54ERA (1-3 4.01ERA on the road) vs Brad Keller 2-4 3.13ERA (1-0 2.93ERA at home)
Twins vs RHP: (#21, .244BA / #13, .733OPS); 33-36 vs RHP; 15-30 on the road
Royals vs RHP: (#24, .239BA / #28, .668OPS); 16-50 vs RHP; 13-35 at home
Moondog’s Analysis: The Twins are 1 for 14 vs Keller in 2018. Keller is the #38 least profitable (-305) starter in 2018 over his 8 starts. I HATE TWINKIES!!! Oh wait, I just refuse to bet them anymore after they failed to show up the last two nights in Kansas City. Too much barbecue? This matchup should be low scoring.

(919) Cleveland Indians vs (920) Texas Rangers
Total: 11
Mike Clevenger 7-5 3.47ERA (4-2 2.61ERA on the road) vs Yovani Gallardo 3-1 8.60ERA (1-0 5.84ERA at home)
Indians vs RHP: (#4, .255BA / #5, .775OPS); 37-33 vs RHP; 23-24 on the road
Rangers vs RHP: (#26, .234BA / #22, .710OPS); 28-40 vs RHP; 19-30 at home
Moondog’s Analysis: The Rangers are 7 for 27 against Clevenger in 2018. Clevenger is the #10 least profitable (-631) starter in 2018 over his 19 starts. My research says take the Rangers, but I just can’t do it. I can’t believe that Clevenger ranks this poorly, so I’ll just roll with the over.

(921) Houston Astros (-130) vs (922) Los Angeles Angels
Total: 8
Lance McCullers Jr. 10-4 3.77ERA (6-2 4.24ERA on the road) vs Andrew Heaney 5-6 3.78ERA (5-2 2.41ERA at home)
Astros vs LHP: (#1, .275BA / #3, .798OPS); 44-20 vs RHP; 34-14 on the road
Angels vs RHP: (#17, .249BA / #8, .744OPS); 40-31 vs RHP; 24-25 at home
Moondog’s Analysis: The Angels are 4 for 20 vs McCullers in 2018. The Astros are 4 for 26 vs Heaney in 2018. Heaney is the #28 least profitable (-408) starter in 2018 over his 17 starts. This is my top play of the day. I might even take a run line play with the best offensive unit against lefties.

(923) Chicago White Sox vs (924) Seattle Mariners (-1.5/-110)
Total: 8.5
Reynaldo Lopez 4-7 3.91ERA (2-5 4.60ERA on the road) vs Marco Gonzales 10-5 3.41ERA (4-1 2.89ERA at home)
White Sox vs LHP: (#18, .239BA / #23, .686OPS); 7-15 vs LHP; 15-34 on the road
Mariners vs RHP: (#8, .254BA / #18, .724OPS); 43-25 vs RHP; 32-18 at home
Moondog’s Analysis: The White Sox are 5 for 24 vs Gonzales in 2018. Gonzales is the #11 most profitable (+560) starter in 2018 over his 19 starts. Lopez is the #15 least profitable (-512) starter in 2018 over his 19 starts. The matchup screams Mariners blowout, and they should be pissed off about being shut out by Dylan Covey last night. I’ll take the over 8.5 and run line.

(925) Miami Marlins (+1.5/-110) vs (926) Tampa Bay Rays
Total: 7.5
Trevor Richards 3-5 4.74ERA (1-3 5.93ERA on the road) vs Chris Archer 3-4 4.29ERA (0-1 4.91ERA at home)
Marlins vs RHP: (#16, .249BA / #25, .691OPS); 33-41 vs RHP; 20-29 on the road
Rays vs RHP: (#5, .255BA/ #20, .717OPS); 31-36 vs RHP; 26-19 at home
Moondog’s Analysis: The Rays are 9 for 22 vs Richards in 2018. Richards is the #20 most profitable (+443) starter in 2018 over 13 starts. I’m going against the majority here, as Archer has not been all that great this season. He might throw a gem, but the Rays are in a bit of a funk.

(927) San Francisco Giants vs (928) Oakland Athletics
Total: 8
Johnny Cueto 3-1 2.36ERA (1-0 0.00ERA on the road) vs Sean Manaea 9-6 3.42ERA (3-4 3.49ERA at home)
Giants vs LHP: (#17, .244BA / #20, .696OPS); 18-21 vs LHP; 20-30 on the road
Athletics vs RHP: (#18, .249BA / #7, .746OPS); 40-26 vs RHP; 25-22 at home
Moondog’s Analysis: The Giants are 5 for 21 vs Manaea in 2018. Cueto is the #40 most profitable (+337) starter in 2018 over his 7 starts. Manaea is the #28 most profitable (+403) starter in 2018 over his 20 starts. This is a good matchup for me to just sit back and enjoy. I would lean on Oakland, but I’m not playing it.

(929) New York Mets vs (930) New York Yankees
Total: 8
Jacob deGrom 5-4 1.68ERA (3-2 1.79ERA on the road) vs Masahiro Tanaka7-2 4.54ERA (2-2 4.30ERA at home)
Mets vs RHP: (#28, .231BA / #24, .705OPS); 31-41 vs RHP; 21-24 on the road
Yankees vs RHP: (#12, .251BA / #2, .778OPS); 39-28 vs RHP; 34-14 at home
Moondog’s Analysis: The Yankees are 4 for 26 vs deGrom in 2018. The Mets are 1 for 15 vs Tanaka in 2018. deGrom is the #20 least profitable (-472) starter in 2018 over his 19 starts. I think the play is F5 under 4, since the Mets just traded away Jeruys Familia yesterday. I can’t lay -160 against the best starting pitcher in baseball, even if he ranks among the least profitable starters this year.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this:
search previous next tag category expand menu location phone mail time cart zoom edit close