Over the next few weeks, leading up to the start of the 2018 NFL season, I will be posting a series of articles relating to player props for this upcoming season. Player props, in my world, have effectively replaced season long fantasy football. I still engage in a few leagues for fun but I definitely enjoy the season long props. In this article we will examine the most passing yards prop. Last year, Tom Brady threw for 4,577 to take the title. He is the favorite again this year at +410. While it still may be good value to grab him there, let’s examine some other value picks for the prop.
Odds provided by SportsInteraction.com
Aaron Rodgers +1000
Rodgers seems like a no brainer choice given his talent level, but he is 34 years old and coming off of an injury plagued season. He also lost his favorite weapon in Jordy Nelson; however he did get an upgrade when Green Bay signed Jimmy Graham. Which Jimmy Graham will Rodgers get though? New Orleans Jimmy… or Seattle Jimmy? Still, the most talented QB not named Brady is always a threat to claim the passing yardage title.
Matt Ryan +1400
With the addition of Calvin Ridley in April, a Julio Jones whose mind isn’t focused on his contract, coupled with Mohamed Sanu, Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman, Matt Ryan has so many Ferrari’s in the garage. I’m sure he and Falcons fans would love for his stats to replicate 2016 (4,944 yards 38 TD). The NFC South is an incredibly tough division but Ryan should be capable of bettering his 2017 stats (4,095 yards 20TD).
Kirk Cousins +1900
Another guy here who would love to duplicate 2016 stats is Kirk Cousins (4,917 yards and 25 TD). The Vikings are expecting that production as well, after inking Cousins to a fully guaranteed $84 million deal. He has two great receivers in Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen. Dalvin Cook is also coming back from injury and should be able to provide some aerial offense as well. The Vikings will probably give Cousins a little more ability to get creative than Case Keenum had last season. Look for Cousins to get back to 4,500+
Deshaun Watson +3700
My flyer pick… Watson showed flashes of brilliance in his limited time last season. I really hope he doesn’t become injury prone because he was fun to watch. In just six games last season, Watson threw for 1,700 yards and 19 TDs. That sample size projects out to approximately 4,530 yards which could be good enough for a passing title. At 37/1 it’s a nice little lottery ticket.